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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to PHI 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model