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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model