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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 5-J.Camarda punts 60 yards to PHI 4, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at TB 44 for 52 yards (44-S.Tucker).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model