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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 18

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.11 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model