Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 49 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (85-T.McBride, 43-J.Luketa).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model