4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 16 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 16-N.Cooney punts 20 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-45-D.Gardeck.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model