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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 30 for 9 yards (22-K.Wallace; 45-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.79 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model