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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 10 for 2 yards (11-C.Moore). FUMBLES (11-C.Moore), recovered by CIN-35-J.Davis at CIN 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model