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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(4:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles up the middle to TEN 36 for 1 yard (58-H.Landry).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP