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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 32-T.Spears to CIN 42 for 3 yards (57-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.27 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.76 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model