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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 8-B.Maher 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model