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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Indianapolis Colts 8

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 8-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.18 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model