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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 21

Indianapolis Colts 15 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 83-K.Granson ran ob at LA 4 for 17 yards (1-D.Kendrick).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.33 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP