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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to MIN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.91 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model