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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CAR 31, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-11-N.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model