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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to MIN 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 30 for 7 yards (45-G.Ricci).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.97 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model