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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to MIN 42, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-B.Powell to MIN 44 for 2 yards (45-G.Ricci).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model