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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 18

Carolina Panthers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIN 23 for -5 yards (22-H.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.33 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP