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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to CAR 18, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 31 for 13 yards (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model