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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to MIN 41 for 6 yards (58-J.Hicks; 22-H.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.17 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model