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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 8

Carolina Panthers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:59) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model