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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 41

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 10-M.Jones up the middle to DAL 41 for no gain (33-D.Clark; 55-L.Vander Esch).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.88 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model