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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 71

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 18

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 22 for 1 yard (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model