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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to DAL 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 31, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model