Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 57

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 31

(:58) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to DAL 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.92 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model