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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 79

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to DAL 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.26 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 36, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model