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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 33

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 38

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 37-C.Ryland 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model