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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 11

New England Patriots 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 37-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model