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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 35

Seattle Seahawks 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model