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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 16

New York Giants 3 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end to SEA 6 for 10 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.05 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model