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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 24 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Bobo (98-D.Davidson).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.64 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP