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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 52

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model