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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 10-B.Mann punts 34 yards to WAS 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.00 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP