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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 85

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 43 for 7 yards (20-J.Martin, 51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.30 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model