Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 14

(6:17) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to WAS 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 26 for 14 yards (26-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model