4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 9

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model