4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP