Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 64

Washington Commanders 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

(9:31) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to PHI 26, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model