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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 15

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 8-B.Robinson left guard to PHI 13 for 2 yards (52-Z.Cunningham; 98-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model