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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 63

Washington Commanders 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to PHI 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 31 for 11 yards (85-C.Turner, 20-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model