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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 45

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 2-D.Brown pushed ob at PHI 29 for 16 yards (2-D.Slay). Penalty on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.64 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model