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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP