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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 3-B.Wing punts 39 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.95 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model