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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model