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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to PIT 4, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-25-K.Seymour.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model