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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 3-B.Wing punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.27 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model