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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 5 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 7, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model