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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 56

Chicago Bears 27 – Washington Commanders 11

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to WAS 17, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-31-Ja.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model