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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 13

Washington Commanders 11 – Chicago Bears 27

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 6-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.18 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP