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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 4 at the 25
Chicago Bears 27 – Washington Commanders 14
What Actually Happened
(14:13) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
The Three Options
GO
+1.16 EP
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP
KICK
+1.40 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
